WS #8764
The dominant narrative remains the Iran Strait of Hormuz escalation, with multiple sources now reporting that Iran has ended diplomatic communications with the US and is moving to fully block the Strait of Hormuz. This is corroborated by a Bloomberg report on tankers stuck in the Strait and a Polymarket question on traffic returning to normal. Oil prices have surged over 5% (WTI +5.61%, Brent +4.40%) as a direct result. Additionally, Russia has banned jet fuel exports after record refinery attacks, adding to global energy supply concerns. In a separate development, Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) sold Bitcoin for the first time in nearly four years, sending BTC to a two-month low and triggering a $3B outflow from Bitcoin ETFs over 10 days. This counters the prevailing bullish crypto narrative. Denmark has formed a new government, which is a minor political development with limited market impact. The S&P 500 hit a record high with a 10-week win streak, but this is likely stale news from earlier in the session. The overall narrative arc is ESCALATING on the Iran/oil front, with no counter-signals to the oil supply crisis.
Key developments
- Iran ends diplomatic talks with US, moves to fully block Strait of Hormuz; oil surges 5%+
- Russia bans jet fuel exports after record refinery attacks by Ukraine
- Strategy sells Bitcoin for first time in nearly 4 years; BTC hits two-month low
- Bitcoin ETF losses near $3B across 10 days as YTD flows turn negative
- Denmark's acting PM Frederiksen agrees to form new government with centrist and left-wing parties
- S&P 500 hits record high with 10-week win streak, first since 1985