WS #8789

The dominant signal in this window is the intensification of US-Iran conflict, with Iran threatening to close the Strait of Hormuz and Trump shrugging off negotiations, causing oil prices to spike (WTI +5% to $92.16, Brent +4% to $94.98). This escalation is corroborated by CNBC, Financial Post, and multiple Polymarket contracts on Hormuz traffic and peace deals. The oil price surge has second-order effects: bullish for energy (XOM, CVX, XLE), bearish for airlines (DAL, UAL, AAL) and consumer discretionary. Treasuries fell on inflation concerns, and South Korea's inflation accelerated to a 2-year high, reinforcing rate hike expectations. Separately, Anthropic's IPO filing (valued >$1trn) is confirmed by FT and Benzinga, setting up a major AI IPO race. Nvidia CEO stated they are still supply-constrained but have enough supply for robust growth. The Trump $1.8B fund has been scrapped (confirmed by multiple sources). Short seller Andrew Left was found guilty of securities fraud (FT, Investing.com, Benzinga). The US-Iran narrative is ESCALATING. The Ukraine-Russia narrative is also ESCALATING with a massive attack on Kyiv. The Anthropic IPO narrative is a new development. The Berkshire Hathaway $10B GOOGL investment from previous awareness is carried forward as ongoing.