WS #8803

The dominant signal in this window is the escalating Russia-Ukraine conflict, with a Ukrainian drone strike on Russia's Ilsky oil refinery causing a fire, corroborated by multiple sources (Reuters, NV.ua, social media). This is part of a broader campaign that has pushed Russia's oil processing to a 17-year low, and the EU may impose new sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil. Separately, Alphabet announced an $80bn equity raise to fund AI infrastructure, including a $10bn share sale to Berkshire Hathaway, which signals massive AI capex but also raises questions about returns. Gold has surpassed US Treasuries as the world's top reserve asset (ECB report: gold now 27% of reserves vs Treasuries 22%), a structural shift driven by de-dollarization. Oil prices slipped slightly on Trump's comments that Iran talks are ongoing, but the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, and inventories are being drawn down rapidly. In tech, HPE surged 29% on AI infrastructure demand, Marvell surged after Nvidia's Huang called it 'next trillion-dollar company', and Cathie Wood loaded up on Nvidia while cutting AMD. Eurozone CPI came in cooler at 3.0% (miss) and core 2.2%, which could ease ECB pressure. Overall, the Russia-Ukraine energy war is the highest-signal development, with potential to move oil, defense, and energy stocks.