WS #8836

The dominant signal in this window is a cluster of Iraq oil export expansion plans, which could materially impact global crude supply and energy markets. Iraq plans to raise crude oil exports by truck to 420,000 bpd in three phases and increase pipeline exports from 220,000 bpd to 770,000 bpd over two and a half months. Additionally, the Iraqi cabinet approved a deal with Syria to transport, store, and handle Basrah crude via Mediterranean ports. These developments are bullish for oil supply and bearish for crude prices, with second-order effects on energy stocks (XOM, CVX) and airlines (DAL, UAL). Separately, the US announced new 25% tariffs on Brazilian imports, which is bearish for Brazil-exposed equities and commodities. The USMCA renewal narrative continues with Mexico proposing a 16-year extension, but this is not new. Trump denied reports that US-Iran talks have stopped, stating conversations are ongoing, which provides a slight de-escalation signal. The Bank of England's Megan Greene signaled that rate hike cases are strengthening due to the Iran conflict, which is bearish for UK equities and GBP. Microsoft's Project Solara announcement at Build 2026 is a positive for MSFT and AI-related hardware plays. Bitcoin continues to face headwinds, with a 36% decline over the past year and a Polymarket bet on MicroStrategy selling Bitcoin. The prevailing macro narrative is stable with no major escalation.