WS #8851

The dominant signal in this window is a wave of positive earnings reports from major tech and consumer names after the close. Palo Alto Networks (PANW) beat Q3 estimates and raised FY26 guidance, with shares popping 12% after hours on AI-driven cybersecurity demand. Ulta Beauty (ULTA) also beat Q1 estimates and raised its annual profit forecast, sending shares higher. GitLab (GTLB) beat Q1 estimates and raised FY27 guidance, though it also announced a 14% workforce reduction. These three reports corroborate a theme of strong AI-related demand and consumer resilience. Separately, a significant geopolitical development emerged: unverified reports that Iran has fully closed the Strait of Hormuz and threatened the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, which would disrupt over 30% of global energy supply. However, this is contradicted by fact-checks stating the Strait is not officially closed and traffic is 91% below normal. The White House calls closure reports false. This remains a high-risk, high-uncertainty situation. In tech, Microsoft unveiled its own AI models to reduce dependence on OpenAI, a bearish signal for OpenAI's valuation but neutral for MSFT. Alphabet's plan to sell $80B in stock for AI infrastructure is seen as dilutive but necessary. Copper topped $14,000/ton and aluminum hit 4-year highs on demand optimism. The overall narrative is mixed: strong earnings support tech, but geopolitical risks and Alphabet's dilution weigh on sentiment.