WS #8879

The dominant signal in this window is a major escalation in the Iran-US conflict. Iran has mined 'large segments' of the Strait of Hormuz, per Secretary of State Rubio, and launched ballistic missiles and drones targeting US military positions in the Gulf, including the Fifth Fleet headquarters in Bahrain and bases in Kuwait. This is corroborated by multiple sources (cnbc.world, jetstream.bsky.priority). In response, Maersk has suspended Strait of Hormuz transits, with rerouting costs exceeding $500M per month. This represents a significant escalation from the previous window's US-Iran conflict narrative. Separately, Ukraine struck a major oil terminal in St. Petersburg with drones, coinciding with the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum. This adds a new dimension to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Canada formally requested a 16-year renewal of the USMCA trade pact, a positive trade signal. BlackBerry surged 8.53% after hours on FedRAMP recertification and insider buying. Copper declined from a three-week high as traders track the Iran war. India's oil demand growth is set for a pandemic low on the war crunch. The Scott Pelley firing from CBS and California primary results are noise with no market impact.