WS #8882

The dominant signal in this window is the continued escalation of the Iran-US conflict, with new attacks and counterattacks. Iran launched ballistic missiles at Kuwaiti bases (Camp Arifjan, Ali Al-Salem Airbase) and struck US 5th Fleet HQ and four bases, while the US bombed Qeshm Island and downed missiles targeting Gulf allies. Trump said 'time to reach a deal,' and Rubio said a deal is possible 'today or next week,' but IRGC warned that 'disrupting the security of the Strait of Hormuz will carry a heavy price.' Japanese PM Takaichi stated that alternative crude oil purchases bypassing Hormuz will increase to 80% this month, indicating ongoing supply disruption. Separately, the St. Petersburg Oil Terminal fire on the opening day of SPIEF 2026 is confirmed by multiple sources, with the governor confirming several objects hit by Ukrainian drones. In markets, Bitcoin plunged below $66,000 to its lowest since February, triggering $1.84B in crypto liquidations, as CNBC reports liquidity rotation toward equities and blockbuster IPOs (SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic). Global stocks hit fresh records on AI rally, with Marvell surging 32.5% after Jensen Huang called it a potential trillion-dollar company. The EBRD slashed growth forecasts for multiple economies (Iraq -5.1pp, Lebanon -6pp, Senegal -1.5pp, Turkey -0.5pp, Romania contraction) citing Iran war inflation and Ukraine disruptions. Trump proposed new tariffs of at least 10% on imports from most major trading partners over forced labor. The narrative arc for the Iran-US conflict is ESCALATING, for Russia-Ukraine it is also ESCALATING, and for crypto it is BEARISH.