WS #8892

The dominant theme in this window is a sharp escalation in the Ukraine-Russia conflict, with multiple corroborated reports of Ukrainian drone strikes on a St. Petersburg oil terminal, causing fires and disrupting operations ahead of a Putin visit. This is coupled with Russian retaliatory strikes on Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities, killing and wounding dozens. The energy supply disruption narrative is intensifying, with reports of fuel sales restrictions in Moscow and the IEA warning of historic oil supply disruption. On the US-Iran front, Trump made a series of statements claiming Iran has agreed not to develop nuclear weapons, that the Ayatollah is involved in talks, and that gas prices will come down when the conflict ends, suggesting potential de-escalation. However, this is contradicted by reports of US strikes, a Kuwait airport attack, and Israel expanding its Lebanon invasion. Berkshire Hathaway invested $16.8 billion in two days under new CEO Greg Abel, a significant signal of confidence. Fed Chair Warsh made his first hires, including a 'Project 2025' author, signaling a hawkish shift. Broadcom earnings are upcoming, with shares having surged $280 billion in four sessions. The EU warns of 1 million job losses from the Iran war's economic fallout. India's oil demand growth is being slashed to pandemic-era lows due to high fuel prices. Partners Group limited withdrawals in a private equity fund, a sign of liquidity stress in private markets.