WS #8911

The dominant market narrative remains the escalating Iran-US conflict, with multiple corroborating signals indicating a significant escalation. Iran's Foreign Minister Araqchi confirmed self-defense strikes on sites the US is permitted to use, and Iranian Revolutionary Guards claimed to have struck a US-owned commercial vessel. A drone attack on Kuwait's airport killed one and injured dozens, with Iran stating it was retaliation for US strikes. These developments, combined with oil prices rising for a third day (WTI +1.55%, Brent +1.40%) and South Korea locking in Canadian crude/LNG supply deals to diversify away from Middle East supply, point to a sustained energy supply shock. The narrative is ESCALATING. Counter-signals are absent; no de-escalation or peace deal progress is reported. Separately, Alphabet's upsized $85B equity offering (priced at ~$355) is a major capital markets event, diluting existing shareholders but funding AI capex. DeepSeek is reportedly raising $7.4B at a $59B valuation, underscoring the AI arms race. Walmart's CEO cited high fuel prices as a 'stress point', linking the oil shock to consumer spending. Private credit stress is highlighted by Ares Management being owed $547M after Textor's Eagle Football collapse and a Bloomberg report warning of a 'pipeline of defaults'. SpaceX IPO roadshow is set at $135/share, $1.75T valuation, which could drive tech/IPO sentiment. Intel's 18A production and Xeon 6+ launch at Computex 2026 is a positive signal for the semiconductor turnaround narrative.