WS #9000

The dominant narrative from the previous window—rotation out of semiconductors into value—is being challenged by fresh signals. Quantinuum's IPO opened at $68, 13% above its $60 pricing, confirming strong demand for quantum computing plays and providing a positive counterweight to Broadcom's drag on the semiconductor space. Mizuho raised its Broadcom price target to $530, suggesting the selloff may be overdone. Meanwhile, Fed's Schmid and Daly both reiterated that AI-driven productivity gains are not yet inflationary, with tariffs and oil as the primary inflation drivers, keeping the Fed on hold. On the geopolitical front, Putin's comments at the St. Petersburg forum suggest Ukraine is not ready for compromises, but he indicated the EU could play a positive role, keeping the Ukraine conflict in a stable but unresolved state. Iran's oil exports fell to a six-year low below 300,000 bpd, providing a floor for oil prices, though Trump's reported hesitancy to restart all-out war with Iran unless US troops are killed is weighing on crude. The Senate GOP defeated an amendment to block Trump's $1.8B 'anti-weaponization' fund, and Trump invoked the Defense Production Act for $700M in coal subsidies, supporting coal stocks but unlikely to move broader indices. Dark pool alerts showed large institutional buys in NVDA ($152.6M), WMT ($100.25M), and QCOM ($100.25M), suggesting smart money is selectively accumulating tech and consumer staples. Pinterest rallied on a $4B AWS AI investment plan, and IBM partnered with Google Cloud on enterprise AI adoption, reinforcing the AI buildout theme. Brown-Forman's Q4 EPS missed estimates but sales beat, while Ciena fell nearly 20% after earnings. The overall narrative is stable with selective bullish signals in quantum computing, AI infrastructure, and select value sectors, while the semiconductor rotation may be nearing exhaustion.