WS #9013
The dominant narrative from the previous window—a sharp tech-to-value rotation with the Dow surging to a record while AI stocks sold off—is confirmed and STABLE. The Dow closed up 875 points near a record, with the Nasdaq the only index in the red. Cash exiting chips after Broadcom's miss rotated into healthcare and financials. Within this window, several earnings reports reinforce the rotation theme: Lululemon (LULU) slashed full-year guidance citing undisclosed headwinds, sending shares down 7%+ after hours and confirming consumer discretionary weakness. Conversely, Samsara (IOT), Rubrik (RBRK), and Guidewire Software (GWRE) all beat estimates and raised guidance, providing pockets of tech strength. DocuSign (DOCU) beat estimates but shares slipped 1.9% after hours, suggesting the bar was high. Planet Labs (PL) beat and raised guidance, but shares traded lower. CooperCompanies (COO) beat estimates and reaffirmed long-term cash flow targets. Argan (AGX) and ServiceTitan (TTAN) also beat estimates. On the geopolitical front, Trump made multiple statements on Iran, Lebanon, and Cuba. He said he does not want to meet Iran's Supreme Leader, that the US does not need a deal with Iran to get enriched uranium, and that if Iran killed US troops it would be a good reason to restart conflict. He also said progress is being made in Lebanon and that he spoke to Hezbollah. The US sanctioned Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel. A new coal plant in Alaska was announced as part of a $700M Trump investment. Trump also reiterated that Pulte will not be the permanent DNI. A large dark pool trade of 1.11M shares of META was detected at $627.57, totaling $695.85M. Crypto is heading for its biggest weekly loss since November 2022. Iran's oil exports fell to their lowest level in at least six years in May due to the US naval blockade. The Howard Hughes Holdings acquisition of Vantage Group Holdings closed, anchoring HHH's transformation into a diversified holding company. Gilead Sciences and Lakefront completed the acquisition of Ouro Medicines to expand the inflammation pipeline. Global Ship Lease announced newbuilding orders for 10 containerships for ~$917M. Keel Infrastructure launched a $350M convertible notes offering. NextEra and Dominion announced plans to create a $420B giant. The May jobs report preview suggests a solid increase. The narrative arc is STABLE: the tech-to-value rotation continues, with Lululemon's guidance cut adding to consumer discretionary concerns, while enterprise tech (Samsara, Rubrik) shows strength. Geopolitical tensions with Iran remain elevated but with some diplomatic signals on Lebanon. The coal plant announcement signals a pro-fossil fuel policy push.
Key developments
- Lululemon slashes FY26 guidance, Q2 outlook weak, shares fall 7%+ after hours
- Samsara beats Q1 estimates, raises FY27 guidance
- Rubrik beats Q1 estimates, raises FY27 guidance
- Trump says he does not want to meet Iran's Supreme Leader; US does not need deal for enriched uranium; threatens conflict if US troops killed
- Iran's oil exports fall to 6-year low in May due to US naval blockade
- Trump announces funding for first new US coal plants in 13 years, $700M investment in Alaska
- Howard Hughes Holdings closes acquisition of Vantage Group Holdings for ~$2.1B
- Gilead Sciences and Lakefront complete acquisition of Ouro Medicines