WS #9018
The dominant signal in this window is the continued fallout from Lululemon (LULU) Q1 FY2026 earnings, with management admitting product launches did not meet expectations and guiding for North America sales to decline low double digits in Q2. This reinforces the bearish thesis for LULU and the broader retail/apparel sector. Separately, Ukraine's Zelensky published an open letter to Putin proposing direct negotiations, a potential de-escalation signal that could dampen geopolitical risk premiums, though Kremlin response is cautious. Energy markets remain under strain: Ukrainian drone strikes continue to hit Russian oil infrastructure, with St. Petersburg gas stations rationing fuel after the Kirishi refinery was knocked offline. This supports bullish energy thesis (XOM, CVX) and bearish airlines/consumer. Other notable items: Broadcom (AVGO) tumbled 12% after in-line AI guidance disappointed; Merlin stock surged 30% on a defense program milestone; and a $500M dark pool trade in META and a $216.8M dark pool trade in NVDA suggest large institutional activity. The overall narrative arc is STABLE with no major macro surprises, but the LULU earnings and Ukraine peace overture are the most actionable developments.
Key developments
- Lululemon guides Q2 North America sales down low double digits, product launches disappoint
- Zelensky publishes open letter to Putin proposing direct negotiations and full ceasefire
- Ukrainian drone strikes knock out Kirishi refinery; St. Petersburg fuel rationing
- Broadcom drops 12% after in-line AI guidance disappoints
- Merlin stock surges 30% on completion of critical design review for C-130J autonomy program
- Dark pool alert: $500M institutional order in META
- Dark pool alert: $216.8M institutional order in NVDA