WS #9039

The dominant signal in this window is a major escalation in the Iran-Strait of Hormuz crisis. A Bluesky priority post reports that Iranian missile and drone strikes on three oil tankers near Bahrain, Kuwait, and Dubai have cut Strait of Hormuz tanker traffic by 70% this week, with Brent crude jumping to $101/barrel. This is corroborated by a separate Bluesky post stating that Oman has shut down its oil terminal after an attack. The crisis is escalating sharply, with direct attacks on commercial shipping and infrastructure. Separately, Trump announced a $700M coal investment using wartime powers (Defense Production Act) to insulate Americans from rising energy costs, which acts as a counter-signal to the oil supply disruption. Other signals include: Bloomberg reports that HSBC and AIA slumped after a report of HK bank account curbs, and US futures and Korean stocks dropped. India rate-hike bets are building due to pricey oil and weak rupee. Philippine inflation remains elevated at 6.8%, keeping rate hike expectations alive. Iron ore futures head for fourth weekly loss. The Ukraine aid bill (House passage) from the previous window is not refuted and carries forward as an ongoing development. The macro narrative is dominated by the Iran/oil supply shock, which is ESCALATING.