WS #9042

The dominant signal remains the escalating Iran-Strait of Hormuz crisis, with Hezbollah rejecting a new ceasefire in Lebanon, dimming prospects for a near-term peace deal. Oil prices are little changed after sharp declines, with Brent at $95.24 and WTI at $92.94, but both contracts are set for their first weekly gain in three weeks. The IEA puts Middle East spare capacity at a record-low 320,000 barrels per day, and the SPR has been drawn by 17.5 million barrels since March. Separately, a Bloomberg report highlights that Bitcoin treasury firms have shed $62 billion in a deepening crypto rout, a negative signal for crypto-exposed equities. China's Xi Jinping is set to visit North Korea on June 8-9 for a summit with Kim Jong Un, adding geopolitical risk. The US jobs report (NFP) is the key macro event tomorrow, with copper and base metals falling ahead of the data. The Iran crisis narrative is ESCALATING, with no de-escalation signals in this window.