WS #9094

The dominant signal in this window is a broad risk-off rotation driven by stronger-than-expected US payroll data, which has crushed rate-cut hopes and triggered a tech-led selloff. The Nasdaq 100 is down 3.4% and approaching its worst day since October 2025, with mega-cap tech names like NVDA (-6.3%), META (-5.8%), TSLA (-7%), and AVGO (-7.7%) leading the decline. The selloff is compounded by a specific META catalyst: an FT report that the company is considering a multi-billion-dollar equity raise to fund AI capex, following GOOGL's $85B raise this week. This has intensified dilution fears across the AI infrastructure trade. Meanwhile, capital is rotating out of crypto into AI stocks, with Bitcoin down 13% on the week and ETF outflows hitting a record 13-day streak. A separate geopolitical risk is emerging from the Middle East: a drone strike at Oman's Mina al-Fahal oil terminal has halted cargo operations, and the US-Iran conflict nears 100 days with no resolution, keeping energy markets on edge. The CDC has also issued urgent warnings about a potential Ebola outbreak in the DRC that could rival the 2014-2016 West Africa outbreak, adding a new tail risk. The macro narrative is ESCALATING: the strong jobs data has shifted the Fed rate hike probability higher, tech valuations are repricing, and geopolitical tensions are rising. The META equity raise story is a high-significance negative for the tech sector, while the Oman oil terminal attack is a developing energy supply risk.