WS #9118

The dominant signal in this window is a significant escalation in US-Iran military conflict. Multiple sources corroborate that the US has conducted strikes inside Iran, targeting coastal surveillance radar sites on Qeshm Island and in Goruk, after shooting down four Iranian attack drones near the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has launched multiple drones toward the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil shipments. Air defense systems were engaged at Kharg Island, a key Iranian oil terminal. This represents a sharp escalation from the prior 'stable' narrative, now clearly escalating. The conflict directly threatens oil supply routes, with potential for oil price spikes, energy sector bullishness, and bearish implications for airlines and consumer stocks. Separately, Trump signaled openness to interest rate cuts under potential Fed chair Warsh, which could counter some bearish macro sentiment. Other notable signals include S&P index changes (Marvell Technology and Flex joining S&P 500, Roku joining MidCap 400), and insider selling at Applied Materials (AMAT). The Anthropic AI safety warning and Google's $920M monthly compute commitment to SpaceX are also noteworthy but less immediately market-moving.