WS #9382

The dominant narrative remains the US-Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz blockade, with several new developments in this window. Iran's military central command announced a halt to strikes against Israel, declaring it had delivered a a 'painful response' but warning of more intense action if Israeli aggression continues. This is corroborated by a separate report that oil prices dipped after Iran and Israel announced a halt to strikes, and OPEC+ confirmed a July output increase of 188,000 barrels per day. However, the situation remains highly volatile: a US AH-64 Apache helicopter went down near the Strait of Hormuz, unclear if brought down by Iranian fire, and a sanctioned oil tanker (Marivex) was hit by a US missile off Oman, with the crew issuing a distress call. The tanker was the seventh ship disabled by the US for violating the blockade. These events suggest the conflict is de-escalating in terms of direct strikes but the blockade and enforcement actions continue, keeping oil supply risks elevated. Separately, the EU proposed a 21st package of sanctions against Russia, targeting banks, crypto networks, drone production, and oil traders. On the economic data front, US existing home sales for May beat expectations at 4.17M SAAR (+3.2% m/m vs 4.05M est), providing a positive data point. The S&P 500 is extending gains led by chipmakers, with NVDA leading a broad advance. A Reuters exclusive reports that payments firm Nuvei is in advanced talks to buy Payoneer Global for about $2.3B including debt, sending Payoneer shares higher. Apple's WWDC announced Siri AI powered by Google Gemini, with TD Cowen raising AAPL price target to $350. JPMorgan plans to deploy long-running AI agents later this year. The SpaceX-Google cloud deal ($920M/month) may point to Microsoft Azure upside per BNP Paribas. Veeco Instruments stock rallied 17% on a follow-on order signaling growing chip demand. Broadcom revenue surged 48% YoY to $22.2B, but working capital is a drag. Options flow showed a sharp rise in put/call premium ratios, signaling defensive hedging. The narrative arc for the Iran conflict is STABLE-to-DE-ESCALATING on the military front but the blockade remains in place, keeping oil prices elevated. The US housing data is a positive counter to recession fears.