WS #9394

The dominant narrative in this window is a sharp escalation in US-Iran tensions following President Trump's claim that Iran shot down a US Apache helicopter over the Strait of Hormuz. Trump stated the US 'must, of necessity, respond to this attack,' per multiple sources including Truth Social, Reuters, and Alpaca News. This counters the prior de-escalation narrative that had driven oil prices down ~4% earlier. The Strait of Hormuz blockade remains a key risk, with prediction market odds for reopening by August dropping from 60% to 26%. Meanwhile, the EIA reported Middle East oil production cuts of over 11 million barrels per day in May due to the blockade. Separately, the EU ordered Meta to open WhatsApp to rival AI chatbots, a regulatory blow to META. Tech stocks are selling off broadly, with SOXL down 15% and AMD down 6%, as the relief rally crumbles. JM Smucker surged 12%+ on strong earnings. Kuwait is offering crude to Asian buyers for the first time since the Strait closure, a potential supply relief signal. Qatar Energy announced a new oil discovery offshore Namibia, which is mildly bearish for oil prices long-term but not immediately market-moving.