WS #9396

The dominant signal in this window is a sharp escalation in US-Iran tensions. President Trump has stated that Iran shot down a US Apache helicopter over the Strait of Hormuz and that the US 'must respond.' This is corroborated by multiple sources (CNBC, Guardian, multiple Bluesky accounts, Seeking Alpha). The Nasdaq 100 has extended losses to nearly -4% on the day, with tech and AI-linked stocks leading the selloff. Oil prices initially plummeted on hopes of a deal but pared losses after Trump's statement, with WTI still down ~5%. The Anthropic Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5 launch is a significant AI development, but its market impact is overshadowed by the geopolitical crisis. The prevailing narrative is ESCALATING: the US-Iran confrontation has moved from blockade to direct military engagement, with a promised US response. No counter-signals (ceasefire, de-escalation) are present in this window.