WS #9405

The dominant signal in this window is the continued escalation of the US-Iran conflict, with Trump confirming Iran shot down a US helicopter (NBC, Reuters cross-corroboration). Iran's foreign minister issued a warning that foreign forces near its territory are at constant risk, and Trump discussed potential post-conflict reconstruction of Iran while claiming half of its oil resources. This geopolitical risk is driving a broad risk-off move: Bitcoin dropped below $62,000, the Nasdaq selloff continues (BTIG nailed the call), and Broadcom (AVGO) fell on earnings disappointment. The SpaceX IPO demand is surging (4x oversubscribed per Reuters), but the geopolitical risk may overshadow the IPO. Anthropic released Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5 models, but this is a stale headline from prior windows. The Iran helicopter shootdown is the key new development that could move markets in the next 1-8 hours, with energy stocks likely to rally and airlines/consumer stocks to fall. The narrative arc is ESCALATING.