WS #9415
The dominant signal in this window is the continued escalation of US-Iran military tensions, with multiple sources reporting Trump's statement that the US 'must respond' after Iran shot down an AH-64 Apache helicopter, and US officials notifying Israel of a planned major attack on Iran in the coming hours. Strait of Hormuz traffic is reported down 95% after clashes, and Iran's deputy speaker warns that any US attack would place the region's energy infrastructure under Iranian missile strikes. However, Iran's state media denies conducting offensive air operations in the Strait in the past 24 hours, providing a partial de-escalation signal. Separately, a major tech selloff continues, with dark pool alerts showing large institutional selling in SPY ($663.64M) and VOO ($1.59B), and MarketWatch reporting that tech stocks tumbled as the SpaceX IPO creates 'bad psychology'. Bond trader positioning signals that Fed rate hikes are coming fast, per Bloomberg. On the earnings front, Casey's General Stores beat estimates significantly (EPS $4.37 vs $3.31 estimate, revenue $4.57B vs $4.30B estimate), and Cracker Barrel beat Q3 estimates and raised FY26 outlook. Cellectis received FDA RMAT designation for its allogeneic CAR-T therapy, a positive biotech catalyst. The prevailing narrative is US-Iran conflict ESCALATING (with military action imminent) and tech selloff STABLE.
Key developments
- Trump says US must retaliate against Iran after Apache downing; US notifies Israel of planned major attack
- Strait of Hormuz traffic down 95% after US-Iran clashes; Iran warns of missile strikes on energy infrastructure
- Tech stocks dive as SpaceX IPO creates 'bad psychology'; large dark pool sells in SPY and VOO
- Bond trader positioning signals Fed rate hikes are coming fast
- Casey's General Stores Q4 EPS $4.37 beats $3.31 estimate, revenue beats by $230M
- Cracker Barrel beats Q3 estimates, raises FY26 outlook, shares jump
- Cellectis receives FDA RMAT designation for allogeneic CAR-T therapy lasme-cel