WS #9477

The US-Iran conflict is escalating sharply, with President Trump stating the US will 'hit Iran again today' and that the ceasefire is over. Multiple sources (CNBC, Al Jazeera, Bloomberg, Reuters, and various social media accounts) corroborate this escalation, marking a significant departure from prior expectations of a diplomatic resolution. Trump also claimed the US has been 'taking out millions of barrels of oil' from Iran, linking the conflict directly to oil supply. Brent crude is reported at $92.82, up 1.5% in the last 11 minutes, with WTI at $90.74. The Strait of Hormuz remains a key risk, with Polymarket contracts showing active trading on its status. Separately, Trump indicated he is not looking to renew the USMCA trade deal with Canada and Mexico, adding trade uncertainty. On the macro front, traders are keeping bets on a Fed hike after CPI data, while PIMCO warns of a wave of defaults for low-quality borrowers. The Bank of Canada held rates steady, citing a weak economy. In corporate news, Robinhood stock is rising after a strong May trading update, and Teva closed its $700M acquisition of Emalex Biosciences. A large dark pool order of 700,000 shares of AVGO ($263M) was detected. OpenAI expects to go public within the next year, per The Information. The prevailing narrative is a sharp escalation in US-Iran tensions, which is bullish for oil and defense, bearish for risk assets and airlines, and introduces significant geopolitical uncertainty.