WS #9515

The US-Iran conflict continues to escalate sharply, with multiple sources reporting fresh US airstrikes on Bandar Abbas and other targets in southern Iran, and Iran retaliating with attacks on US ships near the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices surged 4% to above $92/bbl, and Asian stock futures are falling (Nikkei futures -1.9% vs cash close). The fragile ceasefire is broken; the conflict is clearly escalating. Second-order effects: energy bullish (XOM, CVX, XLE), airlines bearish (DAL, UAL, AAL), refiners bullish (MPC, PSX, VLO), broad market bearish (SPY, QQQ). Additionally, Ukraine struck the Afipsky oil refinery in Russia, adding to oil supply concerns. Oracle and OpenAI announced a partnership to make OpenAI models accessible on Oracle Cloud, a positive for ORCL. Alcoa plunged on a $60M alumina segment hit. The dominant narrative is the US-Iran escalation, which is ESCALATING.