WS #9517

The US-Iran conflict continues to escalate sharply, with Iran's Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters announcing the full closure of the Strait of Hormuz to all vessels, including oil tankers and commercial ships. Multiple sources (Reuters, IRNA, Press TV, Mehr, and various OSINT accounts) confirm that IRGC has struck two vessels attempting passage, fired missiles at an intruding US F-16, and that US Central Command launched additional self-defense strikes on targets in Iran. Oil prices have surged above $92/bbl (WTI +2.4%, Brent +1.8%), and the closure threatens ~20% of global oil supply. Second-order effects: energy bullish (XOM, CVX, XLE), airlines bearish (DAL, UAL, AAL), refiners bullish (MPC, PSX, VLO), broad market bearish (SPY, QQQ). Gold fell for a third day as the dollar strengthened on safe-haven flows. Separately, Ukraine struck the Afipsky oil refinery in Russia's Krasnodar region, damaging a gas line and adding to oil supply concerns. Oracle reported earnings after the bell; Seeking Alpha flagged a rating downgrade citing 'the AI bill arrives', while Bloomberg covered the earnings call. SMCI fell 28% on a $7B dilution shock, dragging semis lower (AVGO -5.1%, ARM -5.4%, SOXX -3.67%). The dominant narrative is the US-Iran escalation, which is ESCALATING. No counter-signals (ceasefire, de-escalation) are present in this window.