WS #9543

The dominant theme remains the escalating US-Iran conflict, with fresh US airstrikes and Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz, pushing oil prices higher. The UK Defence Secretary John Healey resigned over a spending dispute with PM Starmer, a significant political development that could impact UK defence stocks and NATO spending narratives. The ECB is set to raise interest rates for the first time since 2023, a major macro event. Supermicro (SMCI) priced a large equity and equity-linked offering to fund AI orders, which is dilutive but signals strong AI demand. The UK political crisis and ECB rate hike add to the risk-off backdrop, while oil and defence sectors remain beneficiaries. The US-Iran conflict is ESCALATING, with no de-escalation signals. The UK political crisis is a new development. The ECB rate hike is a new macro headwind.