WS #9607

The dominant narrative remains the US-Iran situation, which is DE-ESCALATING with a peace deal text agreed upon, though final sign-off is pending. Multiple sources (Bloomberg, Al Jazeera, DeepDive) corroborate that a deal text has been agreed, with Trump claiming he 'ended the war with Iran today.' This has triggered a broad risk-on move: Bitcoin rebounded above $63,000, Asian stocks surged (Kospi +8.4%), and oil dropped 2% to ~$88.50. However, counter-signals persist: the ECB hiked rates for the first time since Sept 2023, citing persistent supply shocks from the Middle East war, and Ukraine struck Russian oil infrastructure in Tatarstan, hitting a petrochemical plant and causing a massive fire. The SpaceX IPO remains a major theme, with the listing set for Friday and multi-billion dollar windfalls for early investors. The ECB rate hike is a significant macro development that could dampen the risk-on mood, as it signals central banks are reacting to war-induced inflation. The Ukraine drone strikes on Russian refineries add a bearish supply-side risk to oil, partially offsetting the Iran deal optimism. The Avalanche Treasury Co. fell 38% on Nasdaq debut, a notable negative for crypto equities. Japan's industrial output was revised lower, adding to global growth concerns. The Nasdaq quarterly reshuffle added CRWV, RKLB, TER and removed CTSH, CHTR, ZS, which could drive sector rotation.