WS #9609

The dominant narrative remains the US-Iran situation, which is DE-ESCALATING with Trump signaling an end to the war, as per Al Jazeera and Bloomberg reports. This has triggered a risk-on rally: Asian equities surged, crude plummeted, and Bitcoin climbed back above $63,000. The SpaceX IPO is the major event today, pricing at $135 per share, valuing the company near $1.75 trillion, with demand exceeding $250 billion. NVIDIA continues to be a positive signal: the company has begun selling its Vera CPU to Chinese clients, with availability as soon as August, corroborated by multiple sources. UK manufacturing production beat expectations (0.4% MoM vs -0.2% forecast), a positive for UK equities. Counter-signals persist: Ukrainian drones struck Russia's TANECO refinery in Tatarstan, hitting oil infrastructure and adding supply-side risk. The ECB's Nagel signaled readiness to hike again next month if needed. France HICP came in line at 0.1% MoM. Overall, the risk-on mood is supported by US-Iran de-escalation and the SpaceX IPO, but oil supply risks from Ukraine drone strikes and potential ECB hawkishness provide caution.