WS #9630

The dominant market event remains the SpaceX IPO, with shares indicating an open at $172-$174, a 27-29% pop from the $135 IPO price, confirming massive investor demand. However, the geopolitical landscape is shifting: a federal judge has issued a preliminary injunction blocking the Trump administration's $1.8 billion 'anti-weaponization' fund, adding uncertainty. The US-Iran ceasefire narrative remains confused—Trump called leaked terms 'fake news,' but Bloomberg reports Middle East fuel exports are rebounding as tankers slip through Hormuz, and the US Energy Secretary says half of blocked Hormuz traffic has been restored, suggesting de-escalation. Macro data showed a positive surprise: University of Michigan sentiment rose to 48.9 vs 46.0 expected, with 1-year inflation expectations easing to 4.6%, providing relief. Bitcoin faces a bearish call from Bitwise for a potential 20% drop to $48,000. Space-related stocks are giving back gains post-SpaceX IPO hype. The dominant narrative is STABLE with de-escalation signals on Iran and positive macro data, but the anti-weaponization fund injunction introduces political risk.