WS #9632

The dominant signal in this window is the SpaceX IPO debut, with shares indicated to open at $160 vs IPO price of $135, a ~18.5% pop. This is corroborated by multiple sources (Reuters, FT, Bloomberg, Polymarket trades). The IPO is drawing massive attention, with Polymarket contracts trading on closing market cap above $2T-$3.2T. Separately, Exxon Mobil is studying a takeover of Woodside Energy (Bloomberg, multiple cross-posts), which could boost energy M&A sentiment. On the macro front, US consumer sentiment (UMich) rose to 48.9 from 44.8, beating estimates, as gasoline prices ease — a positive for consumer discretionary and broad markets. However, the Iran deal narrative remains confused: Trump denies leaked ceasefire terms, while VP Vance says no cash is being released. Strait of Hormuz flows are recovering to ~7M bpd (half of pre-war), per US Energy Secretary, which is a de-escalation signal for oil. ECB's Kazimir warns inflation will force further rate hikes, a bearish signal for European equities. Adobe (ADBE) is slipping premarket on CFO departure, with multiple analyst PT cuts. The anti-weaponization fund injunction is ongoing (carried forward from prior window). Overall, the narrative is mixed: SpaceX IPO euphoria and consumer sentiment improvement vs. geopolitical noise and ECB hawkishness.