WS #9641

The dominant signal in this window is the escalating US-Iran peace deal narrative, now corroborated by multiple high-credibility sources. A senior US administration official stated the draft deal reopens the Strait of Hormuz, includes an inspection regime, and the US expects to sign within days. Pakistan's PM confirmed a 'final, agreed upon text' has been reached, with both US and Iranian officials signaling a deal is imminent. This is a significant escalation from the previous window's 'no new developments' status. The deal directly counters the prevailing oil supply crisis and geopolitical risk premium, driving oil prices lower and boosting equities exposed to lower energy costs. Separately, the SpaceX IPO is generating massive trading volume and record traffic on Robinhood, with the stock opening at $150 and surging to $175, making Elon Musk the world's first trillionaire. SpaceX options will begin trading Tuesday. A MAG7 carve-out: Tesla stock is sliding as investors rotate into SpaceX, and Wedbush's Dan Ives suggested a potential TSLA-SPCX merger within the next year, which could be a bullish catalyst for TSLA if taken seriously. The University of Michigan preliminary sentiment for June came in at 48.9, beating the 46 forecast and the prior 44.8, a positive consumer data point. The Texas shooting in Midland is a tragic local event with no direct market impact. The Iran deal narrative is the primary market-moving signal, with the SpaceX IPO as a major secondary theme.