WS #9701
The dominant signal in this window is the escalating confirmation of a U.S.-Iran deal, with multiple sources (AP, Al Jazeera, Reuters via Bluesky) reporting that the U.S. administration is confident of a strong deal and will discuss Strait of Hormuz demining at the G7. This directly counters the prevailing bearish oil supply disruption narrative. Separately, SpaceX's historic IPO closed 19% higher, creating a major positive for the space/tech sector. A counter-signal emerges: Iran's foreign ministry says its negotiating team is not planning to visit Pakistan/Geneva in the next few days, suggesting potential delays or friction. The U.S.-Iran deal narrative is ESCALATING with high confidence from officials, but the Iranian statement introduces a note of caution. The Ukraine-Russia conflict remains elevated with a high probability of Russia using an Oreshnik missile within 24 hours and a Ukrainian strike on a key Russian oil terminal. Bitcoin ETFs saw accelerated outflows of -$2.1B in June, indicating continued crypto investor pressure.
Key developments
- Senior U.S. Official: Iran deal strong and imminent, Strait of Hormuz demining to be discussed at G7
- Iran foreign ministry says negotiating team not planning travel to Pakistan/Geneva
- SpaceX shares close 19% higher after historic $75B IPO
- Ukrainian Air Force warns of high probability of Russian Oreshnik missile use within 24 hours
- Bitcoin ETF outflows accelerate: -$2.1B in June, IBIT sees fifth consecutive weekly outflow