WS #9767

The dominant signal in this window is the escalating tension between Iran and Israel, which threatens to derail the US-Iran deal that was reportedly close to being finalized. An Israeli airstrike on Beirut's Dahiyeh district targeting Hezbollah has killed at least 3 and wounded 15, prompting Iran to warn it could derail the US deal. Iran's foreign ministry has stated the MOU will not be signed today, and an Iranian commander has threatened retaliation. This represents an escalation of the geopolitical risk that had been de-escalating. The Strait of Hormuz remains a key concern, with gas prices already up due to Iran's closure. Separately, Fed Chair Warsh faces a challenging debut press conference amid inflation uncertainty, which could impact rate expectations. The SEC's tokenization exemption is notable but not market-moving in the near term. SpaceX's IPO is a major event but appears already priced in. The Knicks championship win led to violent celebrations in Manhattan, but this is a local event with no market impact.