WS #9778

The dominant theme in this window is the escalating tension between the US-Iran peace deal and Israeli military action. Multiple sources (Al Jazeera, BBC, Bloomberg, Guardian, and various social media accounts) corroborate that Israeli strikes on Beirut have jeopardized the US-Iran deal, with Trump publicly rebuking Israel and warning against further attacks. Iran's hardliners are pushing to reject the deal, while Iranian officials defend it. Additionally, there are reports of Iran expected to launch missile attacks on Israel tonight, and Hezbollah deploying Iranian-made ballistic missiles. This represents an escalation from the previous stable narrative. The Strait of Hormuz remains a key risk factor, with Polymarket contracts showing active trading on its return to normalcy. The Paramount merger approval (carry-forward) remains unrefuted. The G7 summit delay due to US president's absence is a minor signal. Overall, the geopolitical risk is escalating, with potential for significant market moves in oil, defense, and safe-haven assets.