WS #9807

The dominant theme remains the Iran-Israel-US diplomatic narrative, which is STABLE with no new escalation or de-escalation signals. Key developments include Trump warning Iran against attacking Israel (via YNet), Trump stating Iran will not get nuclear weapons and that the Strait of Hormuz will open 'shortly', and reports that Trump updated Netanyahu on progress with Iran. These statements are consistent with ongoing negotiations but lack concrete new data. Separately, UK commandos seized a Russian shadow fleet tanker, a minor geopolitical event with limited market impact. The G7 summit in Evian begins June 15, with anti-G7 protests turning violent in Geneva. Bitcoin mining difficulty dropped 10%, a positive for surviving miners but production economics remain underwater. Small-cap rotation continues (IWM up 8% YTD vs SPY up 1.5%). No MAG7-specific contradictory signals emerged. The previous high-significance Iran deal narrative carries forward without refutation.