WS #9815

The dominant signal in this window is the confirmed US-Iran peace deal, which is now fully corroborated across multiple high-credibility sources (Reuters, Bloomberg, NBC, CNBC, Alpaca News, and multiple social media accounts citing official statements). President Trump announced the deal is 'complete' and authorized the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and removal of the naval blockade. Pakistan's PM confirmed a signing ceremony on June 19 in Switzerland. Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister confirmed the deal, with a 60-day negotiation period for final details including sanctions relief and reconstruction. This represents a major de-escalation of the three-month conflict and directly counters the prevailing oil supply crisis thesis. Market reaction is immediate and significant: oil prices fell over 4% (Brent crude hit $83.51, lowest since early March; US crude touched $80.25), US stock futures jumped (S&P 500 +0.7%, Nasdaq +1.1%, Dow +304 pts), Nikkei futures surged 1.9%, and US 10-year Treasury futures rose 10 ticks as markets pared rate hike risk. The narrative arc is ESCALATING from the prior stable frame, as this is a concrete new development with specific market-moving data points. The deal's impact on oil prices is the most actionable near-term signal, with second-order effects on airlines, refiners, and consumer stocks. The Fed meeting this week remains a secondary focus, but the Iran deal dominates. A separate signal: a massive missile and drone strike on Ukraine was reported, but this is overshadowed by the Iran deal in market impact. China consumer spending may have contracted for the first time since pandemic, a bearish macro signal for global growth. The SpaceX IPO and MAG7 narratives are secondary this window.