WS #9817

The dominant signal in this window is the confirmation of a US-Iran peace deal, with multiple sources corroborating key details. Trump announced the deal is complete, with a signing ceremony set for June 19 in Switzerland. The MOU includes a 60-day ceasefire extension, reopening of the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days under Iranian arrangements, suspension of sanctions on Iranian oil and petrochemical sales, and release of $24 billion in blocked funds. Oil prices have already fallen over 4% on the news, with Brent down 3.8% in 24h. The deal excludes Iran's missile program and support for resistance groups from final talks, and includes a requirement for US/allies to present $300 billion reconstruction plans for Iran. UK PM Starmer welcomed the deal. However, Israel has rejected Lebanon-related terms, with Netanyahu informing Trump that IDF will not withdraw from southern Lebanon. Iran's military command claims victory, stating the US had to accept defeat. The narrative is ESCALATING in terms of deal details emerging, but the core peace deal narrative remains stable. Counter-signal: Israel's rejection of Lebanon terms could complicate implementation, but the main US-Iran framework appears solid.