WS #9881

The dominant signal in this window is the formalization of the US-Iran peace deal, with Trump declaring it 'all signed' and the Strait of Hormuz to open from Friday. This is corroborated by multiple sources (Guardian, Axios, Bloomberg, JD Vance statement) and is driving a sharp unwind of the Iran war premium: oil prices are falling (WTI near $81, down ~4.6% previously), Fitch warns of imminent oversupply, and European natural gas prices plummeted ~6%. The deal is a major counter-signal to the earlier oil supply crisis narrative. Separately, Nvidia is raising $25B in its first bond deal since 2021, upsized from $20B due to $85B in orders, signaling robust AI demand. The xAI trade secret lawsuit against OpenAI was dismissed with prejudice, marking Musk's second legal loss. A B-52 crash at Edwards AFB is a notable but likely non-market-moving event. The Newsom DOJ investigation continues to generate headlines but remains political noise with limited direct market impact. The overall narrative arc is DE-ESCALATING on geopolitical risk, with the US-Iran deal as the primary catalyst driving a risk-on rotation out of energy and into tech/consumer.