WS #9885

The dominant narrative remains the US-Iran peace framework driving a broad risk-on rally, with the Dow closing at a record high and oil prices tumbling sharply. WTI crude settled at $80.75/bbl, down 4.87%, and Brent at $83.17/bbl, down 4.76%, as the deal is expected to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and increase global oil supply. European gas prices also fell 6%. This oil price collapse is a major counter-signal to the previous energy crisis thesis, benefiting airlines, consumer stocks, and rate-sensitive sectors while pressuring energy producers. The B-52 crash at Edwards Air Force Base is a notable non-market event but has no direct market impact. Nvidia's planned $20B+ debt sale is a high-signal development for the AI trade, indicating capital demand for AI infrastructure. Fox's $22B acquisition of Roku is a major media consolidation event, with implications for streaming and data control. PGIM's contrarian call for three Fed rate hikes this year introduces a hawkish counter-narrative to the prevailing dovish sentiment. The macro narrative is STABLE with the US-Iran deal as the central theme, but the oil price collapse is a significant new data point that reinforces the risk-on move.