WS #9897

The dominant narrative remains the US-Iran peace deal and its market impacts, with oil prices continuing to decline as hopes for a deal surge. Brent crude dropped 4% to ~$83, hitting a three-month low, while WTI fell ~4.4% to ~$81. Multiple Bloomberg headlines confirm oil is steadying near lows since March on the outlook for a Hormuz deal. The Strait of Hormuz crisis, which removed 20% of global oil supply, is de-escalating as reopening begins. This is a clear counter-signal to the prior oil supply crisis thesis. Separately, a B-52 bomber crash at Edwards Air Force Base with 8 crew believed dead is breaking but has limited direct market impact. SpaceX IPO-related activity continues: options on leveraged SpaceX ETFs (SPCM, SPCG) launch tomorrow, and the SPCX perp on Hyperliquid has generated $18.8B in volume this month. Insider selling filings for HOOD, NBIS, AMAT, and AXP are routine and not market-moving. Dark pool alerts show large institutional orders in SPY ($118M) and AVGO ($300M), suggesting institutional activity but no clear directional signal. The overall market narrative is stable with oil de-escalation as the key theme.