WS #9912
No genuinely new material developments in the last 30 minutes. The dominant narratives (U.S.-Iran deal fragility, weak China data, SpaceX debut) remain unchanged with no fresh data points or counter-signals. The situation is STABLE with no escalation or de-escalation.
Key developments
- China May retail sales fall 0.6% YoY, first decline since COVID lockdowns
- Morgan Stanley cuts oil forecasts as Hormuz deal revives supply
- SpaceX surges 19.6% on market debut, volume exceeds top MAG7 combined
- CIA Director tells Trump Iran unlikely to make nuclear concessions
- China's oil refiners slash output after crude imports plunge