WS #9924

The dominant signal in this window is the US-Iran peace deal, which has been signed electronically via MoU, with the Strait of Hormuz set to open by Friday. This is a major bearish development for oil prices, with WTI crude already falling below $79 for the first time since March 10. The deal counters the previous bullish oil thesis from the Ukraine-Russia escalation. Separately, Ukrainian drone strikes on the Moscow oil refinery are confirmed by multiple sources, but the fire has been extinguished and operations were not impacted, per earlier reports. This dampens the bullish energy signal from the previous window. SpaceX continues its post-IPO rally, gaining 11% in premarket trading, with CEO Musk projecting $1 trillion revenue by 2030. This is a positive signal for the space and tech sectors. The Bank of Korea's minutes show support for a hawkish shift, which could impact Korean equities and the won. Apple has received an order from the Indian government to delist Telegram from its AppStore, which is a regulatory risk for Apple in a key growth market. The overall narrative arc is mixed: the US-Iran deal is de-escalating oil supply fears (bearish for energy, bullish for consumer and airlines), while the Ukraine-Russia conflict remains elevated but with a counter-signal from the refinery resuming operations. The BOJ rate hike from the previous window remains a significant macro factor for yen and Japanese equities.