WS #9939

The dominant narrative remains the US-Iran peace deal scheduled for Friday, with oil prices lower and a rotation out of energy. However, this window introduces a significant counter-signal: Ukrainian drone strikes on Moscow's largest oil refinery, which could disrupt Russian fuel supply and potentially offset some of the bearish oil sentiment from the Iran deal. Separately, SpaceX (SPCX) has surged, briefly surpassing Microsoft (MSFT) in market cap, driven by its public debut and acquisition of AI startup Cursor. This is a MAG7 carve-out: while the macro narrative is tech rally, MSFT faces a bearish analyst call citing high valuation and margin compression from AI capex. The FBI also disrupted a terror plot targeting a Trump event, which is a minor geopolitical risk event but unlikely to move markets broadly. Overall, the US-Iran deal narrative is STABLE, but the Ukraine refinery strike adds a new bullish oil supply risk.