WS #9978

The dominant narrative remains the US-Iran peace deal framework (de-escalating), with the Strait of Hormuz reopening and a 60-day ceasefire. This is corroborated by multiple sources including a Bluesky post summarizing the deal and NPR reporting that shipping execs need assurances the Strait is safe. The deal counters the prior oil supply crisis thesis, dampening bullish energy and bearish index signals. Separately, Ukraine struck Moscow's largest oil refinery with a drone, per Bluesky and Washington Examiner, which could reintroduce geopolitical risk premium to oil. In corporate news, Netflix officially denied rumors of acquiring Lionsgate, causing LION shares to fall after hours. SailPoint affirmed FY2027 guidance in line with estimates, a non-event. GameStop faces a lawsuit to halt a shareholder vote on CEO Ryan Cohen's pay package, a medium-significance governance overhang. The Fed consensus fracture narrative is mentioned on Bluesky but lacks corroboration from official sources. The World Gold Council survey indicates central banks likely to increase gold buying over the next 12 months, bullish for gold. Overall, the US-Iran deal is the primary signal, with the Ukraine drone strike as a potential counter-signal to the de-escalation narrative.