WS #9991

The dominant narrative remains the US-Iran peace deal framework, which is now entering a more concrete phase with the publication of the full MOU text and confirmation of financial terms. Bloomberg has published the full MOU, declaring an immediate and final end to hostilities on all fronts. US officials confirmed Iran will access $100B in frozen funds plus $300B for reconstruction, with over $150B already committed. This is a significant escalation of the deal's scope and specificity, moving from a framework to a detailed agreement. The deal is expected to rapidly reopen the Strait of Hormuz, leading Wall Street banks to cut oil price predictions as Persian Gulf flows are seen recovering quickly. Gold held gains as the deal may ease global inflationary pressures. Separately, the Bank of Japan raised rates by 25bp to 1.0%, the highest since 1995, as USD/JPY hovers near 160, raising carry-unwind risk across global risk assets. The Fed is expected to hold rates steady on Wednesday, posing an early test for new chairman Kevin Warsh. In other developments, Ukraine struck a Moscow refinery in a revenge attack, and the US is holding off blacklisting Chinese companies including DeepSeek and CXMT to avoid escalating tensions with China. The US-Iran deal narrative is ESCALATING in specificity and market impact.