WS #10042

The Federal Reserve held rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% in Kevin Warsh's first meeting as Chair, but the hawkish shift in the dot plot—median 2026 rate now 3.8% vs 3.4% previously, signaling at least one hike—is the dominant market-moving event. The statement was dramatically shortened, removing the easing bias, and 9 of 18 dots flag a 2026 hike. US yields jumped, equities sold off (S&P -37bps), and gold/bitcoin slid. Warsh's press conference is ongoing and will be parsed for tone. Separately, the US-Iran MOU narrative continues to escalate: Trump said signing could happen 'tomorrow or the next day,' but also threatened military action if Iran doesn't comply, creating uncertainty. A corn ship entered the Persian Gulf ahead of the deal. The IEA warned oil markets could swing from a massive supply disruption to a 5M bpd surplus next year if Middle East production recovers. SpaceX shares surged past Amazon after its IPO, and the company agreed to acquire AI coding startup Cursor for $60B. Anthropic's export control dispute with the Trump administration escalated, with the company meeting officials to resolve the issue. The G7 agreed to intensify pressure on Russia with new sanctions on oil and gas.