WS #10043

The dominant signal in this window is the ongoing Federal Reserve press conference under new Chair Kevin Warsh, which is confirming the hawkish shift signaled by the dot plot. Warsh has stated the Fed has 'dropped forward guidance,' that inflation is 'primarily determined by monetary policy,' and that task forces will review communications, the balance sheet, data sources, productivity, and inflation frameworks. He also said he did not offer projections today, consistent with his long-held views. The statement was dramatically shortened and removed the easing bias. This reinforces the risk-off tone from the earlier FOMC decision. Separately, the US-Iran MOU narrative continues with Trump making non-committal statements about the signing, threatening military action if Iran doesn't comply, while a corn ship entered the Persian Gulf. The full 14-point MOU text has been released, calling for an end to military actions in Lebanon and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Anthropic's export control dispute is escalating, with the company joining the Frontier carbon removal coalition as a counter-signal. A leaked Iran deal headline from Raw America claims 'total surrender from Trump,' but this is from a single source and should be treated with caution. The MAG7 narrative shows META off 4% per a social media post, contradicting the broader tech selloff narrative.