WS #10164

The dominant narrative remains the US-Iran ceasefire deal and Strait of Hormuz reopening, which is now being operationally confirmed: Abu Dhabi has told buyers to load oil shipments from inside the strait, and JD Vance reported 12 million barrels crossed overnight without incident. This is a significant de-escalation signal that counters the prior oil supply crisis thesis. Oil prices are in choppy trade, with Brent around $79.50, as markets weigh the deal's implementation risks. Separately, Goldman Sachs slashed its gold price target by $500, citing no Fed cuts this year, which is a bearish signal for gold and a bullish signal for the dollar. Thailand is seeing capital inflows as funds exit Indonesia, following MSCI's downgrade of Indonesia's information flow rating. The Ukraine drone attack on Moscow oil refinery continues but is now part of a broader conflict narrative already priced in. Morgan Stanley filed amendments for ETH and SOL ETFs, revealing the lowest fees in the market, which is a positive development for crypto adoption. The META AI capex thesis from prior windows remains unrefuted and is carried forward.