WS #10165

The dominant narrative remains the US-Iran ceasefire deal and Strait of Hormuz reopening, which is now being operationally confirmed. However, a new counter-signal has emerged: the Swiss Foreign Ministry announced that US-Iran talks at Bürgenstock will NOT take place as planned on Friday, per Reuters. This is a significant escalation risk that could undermine the deal's implementation timeline. Separately, S&P 500 futures extended an early dip to fall 0.5%, and Nasdaq futures fell 0.8%, per Reuters, suggesting risk-off sentiment. Asian stocks hit a record high, per Bloomberg, while oil heads for a weekly loss. The META AI capex thesis from prior windows remains unrefuted and is carried forward. Goldman Sachs slashed its gold price target by $500, citing no Fed cuts this year, which is a bearish signal for gold and a bullish signal for the dollar. The Ukraine drone attack on Moscow oil refinery continues but is now part of a broader conflict narrative already priced in. The Israel-Hezbollah clash surge in southern Lebanon is a new geopolitical risk that could impact energy markets and regional stability.