WS #10358

The Strait of Hormuz crisis continues to dominate, with multiple sources confirming Iran's closure of the strait and the Iranian delegation walking out of US negotiations in Switzerland after Trump threatened new strikes. This directly contradicts the US Energy Secretary's earlier claim that 67 ships transited the strait yesterday with flows near pre-war levels. The closure is a major escalation that will likely spike oil prices and roil global markets. A potential counter-signal is a report from an Iranian source that a draft agreement on oil sanctions relief has been finalized, but this is outweighed by the walkout and closure reports. Separately, UK PM Starmer is expected to announce an exit plan on Monday, clearing the way for Andy Burnham to become PM, adding political uncertainty in the UK. The Strait of Hormuz narrative is clearly ESCALATING, with no strong counter-signals in this window. The aluminum rally losing steam as producers adapt to the Iran supply shock is a secondary development. Emerging-market earnings beating expectations for the first time in four years is a positive but less immediate signal.