WS #10359

The Strait of Hormuz crisis remains the dominant market narrative, with multiple sources confirming the strait remains closed and maritime traffic falling sharply. A GDELT report citing Benzinga notes a sharp decline in traffic through Hormuz after Iran's shutdown announcement, corroborating earlier closure reports. However, a potential counter-signal emerges: US-Iran talks in Switzerland concluded a first round with both sides withdrawing for consultations, and VP Vance expressed optimism. This diplomatic channel could de-escalate the crisis, but the IRGC's representative stated Iran will never befriend the US or abandon eliminating Israel, indicating hardline resistance. Separately, Ubisoft co-founder Claude Guillemot died in a plane crash, a company-specific event. NVIDIA stock is down 10% from YTD high with analysts predicting a 46% jump, a notable divergence. The UK political situation is stable: Starmer faces pressure but no new developments in this window. The Strait of Hormuz narrative is STABLE with a potential DE-ESCALATORY counter-signal from talks.